One down, five to go…minus six days.

We are officially a whole month and six days removed from that Holy day known as Opening. And, as usual, I don’t think anyone would have been able to predict what has and hasn’t gone on in that time. (A healthy Pujols  needing  a month to hit a homerun? Really?) But such is the glory and beauty of baseball, as many, many lifelong lovers and observers will tell you.

From this blog’s beginning, I’ve been hesitant when dealing with expectations or potential, mainly because baseball is played by human beings. We’re not perfect, we don’t perform as expected or up to any perceived potential all the time.

Over a six month season, averages and histories may win out; things may level out after a while. Do I think the Orioles are going to win the AL East this year? Probably not, but there’s no real way to tell. There is never a way to tell what is going to happen on any given day of the baseball season, let alone multiple months from now.

It’s been interesting so far this season to see the reaction to the Jays. Our offense and the re-vamped bullpen were supposed to be the highlights that  help support our rotation as they learned and succeeded on the job. At least, that’s what it looked like on paper, right? Well, looks good on paper hardly ever looks good in person.

Over the first 32 games this season, the general impression I’ve gotten from a loud part of the Jays’ fan base is that Lind needs to be gone all together; Bautista has lost “it”; our bullpen is going to give someone a heart attack; Arencibia’s just a placeholder; and, Encarnacion is awesome. (As a side, I’ve leaned towards that last one since EE came to town.)

By no means do I think those opinions are indicative of what the whole fan base thinks, but they are by far the loudest impressions out there from fans about the state of the franchise and the possibility of playoffs in 2012 for the hometown team. Somehow, the main thing that seems to get lost here is that even if the more negative statements above have even a shred of truth, we’re still not out of the playoff hunt; no team has yet to run away with our or any other division. We’re not the only team that’s struggling one way or another, or the only team with a big bat that has yet to be sizeable this season.

The proverbial sky has not and is not fallen/ing. To a man I’m sure the Jays probably haven’t performed the way they would have liked to this point, but all hope for the post-season is not lost. We are still in the running; we still have the chance to challenge the top spot(s) in the AL East.

You know the old adage “You can’t win the division in April, but you can lose it”? There’s a reason the saying has stuck around.

With that in mind Jays fans, take heart. Maybe the team hasn’t performed to expectation or their “potential”, but they’re still finding ways to win. Do I think Lind, Bautista and Arencibia are going to start hitting? Yes, they’re too good not to. But I also know it might not necessarily be what we’ve come to expect from past performance, either good or bad. Great part of baseball – tomorrow is a new day, and you never know what can happen.

Enjoy the ride fellow fans, as I have a feeling it’s going to be pretty crazy.

JaysGirl5

Ready, Set...MEET!

Early December is always an interesting time of year on the baseball calendar. Most players start getting back to their workout routines, if they haven’t already. The new baseball season seems so much closer than it did when the World Series ended. And, oh yeah, there’s this little matter of the yearly GM meetings taking place.

This year’s festivities are set to start today in Dallas, Texas. I’m always intrigued to see what might come out of them, but this year seems a little different. A lot of that has to do with the new CBA that has officially been ratified between MLB and the MLBPA. (In general, I have an interest in collective bargaining agreements and employer/union relations. It’s the nerd in me, and my past experience I guess.)The other part of me is just the continual curiosity I have about what creative move AA is going to pull out of his bag o’ tricks next.

Other than the new CBA, the offseason to-date has been pretty quiet. Sure, Papelbon signed with the Phillies (thoughts on overpaying/not overpaying?) and there have been numerous rumors about where Pujols will end up. On the Jays front, it’s definitely been quiet. A few small moves (Brad Mills to Anaheim for Jeff Mathis, Luis Valbuena from Cleveland for cash) have been made, but all’s quiet on the blue bird front. Until now.

By all accounts, AA is looking to make some majorish moves, or at least start the ball rolling on the “big” moves we’ll see coming out of Toronto this offseason. I refer to them as “big” because I don’t see any of them being huge blockbuster deals like we’ve seen in the part. Looking around the roster, there are some key spots to be filled (2^nd base, closer), but nowhere near the amount of holes we’re seen before. Our core roster is strong and young, will a whole host of awesome guys working their way up through the minors.

The one “move” I will comment on that a lot of Jays fans have been backing is bringing Prince Fielder to Toronto. Especially now with an unconfirmed report that Toronto’s on Fielder’s short  list for places he’d like to play. Not surprising as from all accounts I’ve heard, he enjoyed visits here while his dad trolled the outfield for us.

I wholeheartedly do not support this move. Part of it is his possible asking price, but on within the context of his role on the team. I am a LindyHop enthusiast. I have enjoyed watching Adam Lind grow as a player since he made his debut back in Sep ’06. I like him at 1^st and believed for a long time before he moved out of the DH spot that he would find a home there.  

Not all Jays’ fans share my Lind love, and that’s okay. But what I don’t get is the call to heave him out of 1^st after only one full season (minus a month missed for back issues). Some point to his defensive skills, some to his drop off at the plate. Well, you try playing a fielding position for a full season for the first time in the Bigs after being a part-time outfielder/mostly DH for your career, then see if YOUR production doesn’t suffer. Adam said as much near the end of the season. It’s a more difficult physical and mental grind having to transition to playing every day, instead of just walking to the plate 3+ times in a game.

There’s no denying that Fielder is incredibly productive at the plate. It’s an attractive, attention grabbing quality on his résumé; having that much homerun power could be a great protective agent behind Bautista. But, what about the possible hit we’d take in the field? Maybe this is a reflection of me being a pitching and defense kind of person, but I’ll take Lind’s defense over Fielder’s any day. For those statistically inclined readers, here’s my backing to that statement.

In 2011, Fielder had the lowest fielding% among all 1^st basemen, at .990 (159 games). Lind was 6^th at .996 (109 games). Remember, this was Adam’s first full season at an infield position. I will also concede that Fielder did play 50 more games than Lind, with 411 more total chances. But, I’ll still take Lind. You can also compare both their first full seasons at first, in which Fielder did have more games, but I didn’t want to overload with numbers here. If you’re interested, just search Fielder and Lind’s stats on the MLB site. I will note however, that Prince has had only one season with a fielding percentage over .996 (2010; .997) and I foresee LindyHop getting better next season.

There’s also talk about bringing Prince to Toronto to DH, but I also balk at that idea. He’ll only be 27 as of opening day 2012. That is so incredibly young to move someone into the DH spot, and part of the reason Lind (28) is now at first. The Jays didn’t want to make him a career DH before he hit 30. Fielder might not be my favourite option as a new team member in T.O., but I also don’t think it’s time for him to leave the fielding part of his game behind.

I honestly get the draw and (some) of the reasons why bringing Prince to Toronto is being so highly talked about, and not just bandied about in the fan world. But I honestly don’t see the fit. We have other, more pressing concerns (see above) to worry about without getting into replacing guys that have/will contribute to the team’s success.

I am an Adam Lind fan, just as I am a Travis Snider, Eric Thames, and Edwin Encarnacion fan. We have an overabundance of guys that could play great roles filling places in the roster where we need them. Unfortunately, that doesn’t apply to all positions, but we’re in a pretty comfy (and soon to be very successful) place right now Jays' fans. Obviously AA is aware of that and is about the start workin’ his GM magic.

Pull up a chair Jays fans. It’s going to be a pretty neat next couple of days at the Winter Meetings.

Just wanted to send out some congrats/ROCK ONs to:

• -         Arencibia and Lawrie being named to the 2011 Topps All-Star Rookie Team
• -          And the following guys for being chosen by the BWA’s Toronto chapter Award winners:

o   RickyRo – Pitcher of the Year

o   JoBau – Player of the Year (Neil MacCarl Award)

o   JPArriba – Rookie of the Year

o   Janssen – Most Improved Player

o   McGowan – John Cerutti Award (given to a person who shows the cooperation, goodwill and character Cerutti was known for.)

Happy Early Holiday Season readers! I wish you and your loved ones the merriest, baseball filled (as much as possible in Dec/Jan) times!

JaysGirl5

P.S. the 2012 season is getting closer!